The air in south Phoenix has always been hot, but it has never felt more uneasy. The community has seen a change from citrus groves to warehouses, and now faces an uncertain future.

Shayla Mathis, a 42-year-old preschool teacher at the Zion Institute, has lived in south Phoenix for her entire life. She said the community is “all over the place.” Mathis’s rent is rising, and she fears her building will be sold.

“You feel it in the air, it doesn’t seem normal,” Mathis said. “Everybody’s rushing to get to where they need to be, that’s what I’m starting to notice.”

The south Phoenix community has been undergoing a change that other parts of the city have seen in recent years: rising housing prices and an influx of new people.

Zion day care worker Lanae Thomas, 45, has noticed a stark change in the community since she settled here 16 years ago.

Thomas said when she settled in south Phoenix, the community was mostly made up of Black and Latino people; now she sees more diversity.

Mathis said the population increase has been more notable as of late.

“It’s watching cotton fields turn into houses, cotton fields turn into schools,” Mathis said. “Now we have a light rail on the south side.”

The statistics back them up. The city of Phoenix is growing faster than any other city in the U.S. The city’s population grew by more than 11% between 2010 and 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As the area grows, so do places like south Phoenix that were previously “underdeveloped.”

Housing costs have risen with the population.

According to the Maricopa Association of Governments, average rent prices in Phoenix climbed by nearly 30% last year to $1,418 per month, and are projected to increase by another 20% in 2022.

The median household price jumped by 29% between 2020 and 2021 to over $398,000.

Mathis said there is now a safety risk with the increase in construction and traffic along the road. She blames the changes on the population increase and carelessness by the city government.

“There’s too many people here,” Mathis said.

Amid the rising rents and increase in population, south Phoenix residents face a new challenge: an expansion of the light rail, which could further gentrify the area.

Public transportation built through a community, not for it

Since the Valley Metro Rail began operating in 2008, it has been an important part of the sprawling city’s infrastructure and transportation system.

The 23-mile line runs from Mesa to north Phoenix, traveling through Tempe and downtown Phoenix. It has stops at Arizona State University, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, and high-traffic sites in downtown Phoenix like the Footprint Center and Chase Field.

Close to 20,000 people used the light rail system every week in 2021, according to Valley Metro’s ridership report.

Expansion of the light rail will add another line from downtown Phoenix on Jefferson and Washington streets and Central Avenue, and five miles down Central Avenue to Baseline Road. The project will be completed by 2024.

The Valley Metro Quality of Life report said $11 billion has been publicly and privately invested along the light rail corridor since the system’s construction began in 2005. The report also said the light rail has offset over 2,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions.

Madeline Phipps, communications director of Valley Metro, said those statistics represent positive outcomes, like increased housing and educational opportunities.

“We would certainly say that we hope that the light rail would generate that kind of economic development also along the South Central Extension when it opens in a couple of years,” Phipps said.

Despite the light rail’s environmental and transportation efficiency benefits, its direct effect on housing costs can drive out families and communities that have been there for generations.

“I would say a lot of people that we’ve ran into because of the prices going up, I’ve seen a lot of people encountering housing issues,” Thomas said. “I’ve never received as many offers as I’m receiving now. And it makes me wonder, why are they trying to buy my house? Do my neighbors get this same kind of pressure because that light rail is coming right through there?”

Outside developers may see land along the new light rail line as ripe for high-rises and housing for higher-income people coming to the Valley. The potential for rising prices, gentrification and displacement will continue to increase as light rail construction continues.

Gentrification is happening all over the Valley. Cities like Gilbert, Chandler and parts of Phoenix like the area around Grand Canyon University and Garfield in downtown Phoenix are experiencing gentrification.

Businesses in south Phoenix are also being affected by the gentrification as a result of the light rail.

Marcus Jones owns Central Sounds, a stereo shop in south Phoenix along Central Avenue. He said the city has threatened to file suit against him to invoke eminent domain on his business to buy it out for the light rail construction.

The light rail construction is now right outside his business, which operates directly on the sidewalk. Jones said construction along Central Avenue is hitting his gas and water line, as well as blocking access for potential customers.

Jones said Valley Metro has brought him a case of water every couple of months to make up for the number of times that his water gets cut off.

“They give you a grant once every six to nine months, if that. But that’s what they call help,” Jones said. “When they cut the water lines off and the water is going to stay off all night, they bring you a case of water.”

Jones is having a hard time fighting the city. He said he’s been told he can’t win and that “nobody wants to take on the case.”

“Why would I use my own money that I work hard for all the time to put in on their light rail? All that doesn’t make sense to me,” Jones said.

Pratcher said eminent domain is an important tool that city governments use to buy out private property from its owner for that land to become public.

But governments can also use the tactic to “destabilize” pockets of resistance in the community, making it more compliant and flexible with the coming changes.

A new challenge for an uncertain community

Central Avenue is a construction zone south of downtown Phoenix.

Traffic cones, barricades, trucks, gas lines and workers line the busy street on both sides, leaving a twisting maze of cones for pedestrians, buses and cars. Businesses only get a small blue sign to point to where people can enter their nearly blocked off parking lot.

“This is not cool,” Mathis said. “There’s more traffic, there’s more backup, you know, there’s more business and stuff shutting down.”

The community has already tried to fight the expansion of the light rail before, but was outweighed by the rest of the city.

In 2019, the city had a special election on Prop. 105, a proposal to keep or kill the light rail expansion. The results were not close, as residents in south Phoenix shared their voting district with people who live in downtown or north Phoenix. Current city district borders do not have a district that is only in south Phoenix. The proposition failed, with 63% of voters voting to continue construction.

Pratcher said the city government will figure out a way to finagle basic land tenure from south Phoenix residents if it thinks it's going to be in the broader benefit of development for the Valley. If there isn't a benefit to developing south Phoenix, it will be ignored.

Thomas said she feels tension within the community during this period of change that is worsening with the increased population.

“It kind of puts some pressure on the community because some people are having to move because they just can't afford their rent going up. Which brings in another thing, because you're gonna have all these different people moving into the community, and you kind of don't know who's moving in your community, it's a lot of questions,” Thomas said.

Mathis said the community has been through a lot in the past few, and she is relying on her faith.

“Just pray about it. God’s got it, and he's gonna take care of whatever the situation is,” she said.